by Maciej Hacaga and Krzysztof Dzieciolowski -As conservative Law and Justice party is still enjoying its spectacular success in the October Polish parliamentary elections, its recently formed government is already facing a challenge which, if managed inappropriately, has a potential to severely damage its popularity. The once mighty Polish hard coal mining industry is effectively on the brink of disaster. Long disregarded problems of economic inefficiency and bad management in the sector are proving to be lethal in a period of very low world coal prices. What makes the whole situation even more complicated is that both domestic coal is still the cornerstone of the Polish energy generation and that major mining companies remain state-owned enterprises. While short-term solutions are necessary, this has to be seen in the wider context of the EU climate policy which openly aims at decarbonisation. In effect, Poland is becoming increasingly isolated with its pro-coal narrative in Europe.
In order to speculate about the future of the Polish coal and how it can be impacted by current developments, it is crucial to understand the rationale behind Polish preference for coal, often perceived as myopic and irrational by international commentators.
29 Dicembre 2015
19 Dicembre 2015
by Michele Delera - Omani crude is currently trading at below $40 per barrel. Drilling activity in the country has hardly been affected. Crude and condensates production hit record levels recently, with 1mm b/d produced for the first time in the country’s history in July. But spending in the hydrocarbon sector is increasingly under pressure. At least 1,000 Omani workers – around 5% of Omani nationals employed in oil and gas companies – have been laid off since the start of the year. More redundancies are expected in the months ahead. With over 45 percent of Oman’s population being less than 20 and the memory of the 2011-12 protests still fresh, this is a sensitive issue.
10 Dicembre 2015
by Sergio Matalucci and Antonio Sileo - Eurogas wrote at the end of October that gas demand in Europe is expected to grow by 7% in 2015 compared to 2014, explaining that the first half of the year should drive most of this rise. The organisation representing national gas associations concluded that ‘taking 2015 as a whole, gas demand would correspond to an EU 28 & Switzerland annual consumption of about 4760 terawatt-hours or 441 billion cubic metres.’ What are the eventual reasons for this change? More importantly, does it make sense to use gas consumption as a proxy variable for industrial performance as some commentators already hypothesised and hoped for? Or shall we rather say that the uptick in consumption has simply to do with weather conditions?
01 Dicembre 2015
by Carlo Durante - Let’s be clear: Big Green is Big Business. Despite investments in clean energy have lowered if compared to previous years, Green still seems to be where energy investment is ultimately headed. Question is if Big Oil is anticipating the move.
24 novembre 2015
by Federico Franchina - There is a relevant link between international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, LNG and the future of transport. So far LNG was considered as one of the energy sources mostly fitted for domestic purposes like heating. Due to its characteristic of being a “good” mainly for home end-users, LNG has known a “single way” development. Oil and gas companies and countries have concentrated their efforts to build LNG terminals where store this resource shipped by sea or to support the construction of gas pipelines form producing countries.
16 novembre 2015
by Filippo Clô - Low oil prices are finally affecting shale production. However, the shale industry continues to show a strong resiliency and it may eventually emerge as a winner in this new lower for longer scenario.
29 ottobre 2015
by Mauro Alberti, Antonio Sileo - The meeting held in Bonn two weeks ago has likely been the last round of formal negotiations before the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) in Paris. Up to now, more than 140 countries, accounting for about 90% of global emissions, have already submitted IPPC commitments to reduce emissions. Kyoto only covered 35 countries and about 15% of global emissions.
The very different carbon intensity among countries and areas of the world could be an issue to be targeted in the Conference. The transport sector is a good example because of the significant differences among the main world economies, some of which are facing the echoes of the diesel-gate scandal.
An historical overview of the US and the EU could be useful to understand where these differences come from.
21 ottobre 2015
by Andrea Renzulli - On July 6th, the Austrian Government announced to have filed a lawsuit with the European Court against the European Commission state-aid approval of the Hinkeley Point Agreement. “The lawsuit will serve as deterrent to investors [in nuclear energy], not only in Britain, but throughout Europe”, said Werner Faymann, Federal Chancellor of Austria, opening a new phase in the current debate around the future of nuclear power in the European Union. With roughly half of the 396 GW nuclear capacities installed in the world that should be replaced by 2040, mainly in the EU, Russia, US and Japan, nuclear power is today at a turning point. Considering the constant decrease of nuclear power share in global electricity production (from 18% in 1996 to the current 11%), it’s not easy to predict what will be its future in the next decades: retreat or revival?
29 settembre 2015
by Ruben Laleman - The safety and sustainability of nuclear energy was all over the news in 2011 when a tsunami hit the nuclear power plant of Fukushima. Immediately thereafter the German government decided to rapidly phase out their nuclear reactors. Despite this bold move by the Germans, few other European countries followed. In contrast, some are even building (France) or planning (the U.K.) new nuclear assets. Belgium did not really change the existing phase out plan at that time.p>
22 settembre 2015
by Michele Delera - On September 10, Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez was sentenced to thirteen years and nine months in prison. Arrested on grounds of inciting violence during the wave of protests that engulfed Caracas and other major cities less than a year ago, Mr Lopez is but another casualty of the executive’s often criticized interference in judicial matters. However, with President Maduro’s approval ratings lower than ever and street protests still ongoing, the sentence might be interpreted as a sign of the government’s weakness – a last-ditch attempt at intimidating the opposition ahead of December’s parliamentary elections.
05 Agosto 2015
by Matteo Verda - Until the end of 2014, it used to be common wisdom that a premium on Asia-bound cargos was a long-term structural feature of the global LNG market. However, since the third quarter of 2014, plummeting oil prices and weaker-than-expected demand growth have changed dramatically price trends in the Pacific basin, with economic and political consequences at global level.
28 luglio 2015
by Nicolò Rossetto - An important element of the current transition of the electricity system towards a low carbon and decentralized future is represented by technologies for storing energy, in particular electrochemical batteries. In the last few years they have attracted much attention by businessmen, utility planners, engineers, advocates of a more sustainable energy system and columnists in newspapers and on the web.
Interest on the matter is significant in Italy as well and, after recent developments in the regulatory framework, industry leaders say the market is set to grow fast and give its contribution to a more reliable, greener and cheaper electricity for Italian households and firms.
15 luglio 2015
by Antonio Nicita - In the last twenty years, the liberalization process of network industries that took place in most OECD countries, focused almost entirely on supply-side policies. This process is based on the assumption that by removing obstacles that reduce supply-side competition, greater freedom of choice for the supposedly rational consumers would sustain a pro-competitive process. For some time now, however, the data available show on the one hand that dominant positions are difficult to overcome and, on the other, that only part of the consumers are keen to replace their incumbent suppliers with a new one.
10 luglio 2015
by Francesca Morra e Lorenzo Parola - With decision of 18 and 30 March 2015, the Administrative Court of Lombardy (TAR) dismissed the appeal of OLT Offshore LNG Toscana S.p.A. against a number of resolutions of the Italian energy regulator - AEEGSI - regarding the regasification activity. OLT is a joint venture between the Italian utility IREN and the German one EON, which developed and manages together a floating regasification terminal off the coast between Livorno and Pisa with a capacity of 3.75 billion cubic metres/year. Many aspects of the case are worth noting. In fact, it created a precedent of waiver of the exemption from third party access (TPA) provisions, forcing the relevant authorities to fill a gap in the TPA exemption discipline.
07 luglio 2015
by Michele Delera - Last month Mr Rouhani’s cabinet raised domestic fuel prices by 40 percent, and gas prices to households and commercial consumers by 15 percent. The move comes as part of a wider government effort – which also includes a planned depreciation of the official exchange rate, by 10 percent – to bring some relief to the country’s strained public finances.
20 giugno 2015
by Michele Delera The decline in oil prices is putting under strong pressure the budgets of oil exporting countries across the MENA region, and is reducing their external positions. Algeria – where the hydrocarbon sector accounts for over 95 percent of export earnings, and around 64 percent of total fiscal revenues – is a case in point. Oil and gas exports generated $12.54 bn in the first quarter of 2015, 43 percent less than over the same period last year [1]. With lower export earnings, the current account deficit is bound to increase. So is the fiscal deficit, which the IMF expects will rise to just under 13 percent of GDP.
17 giugno 2015
by Matteo Verda - According to the Italian transmission system operator, Snam Rete Gas, between 2011 and 2014 natural gas consumption decreased by 21%, from 76 to 60 billion cubic meters (Bcm). Even if during the first five months of 2015 this trend reversed and consumption increased from 28 to 31 Bcm (i.e. +9%), final demand will take years to recover its pre-crisis levels, if ever. Regardless of the causes, slack demand had an impact on the structure of the Italian supply.
04 giugno 2015
by Filippo Clô - As regularly happens since oil prices started to fall in July 2014, prophesies about the imminent end of the shale oil industry continue to fill the newspapers. The most recent and resounding attack came from the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy’s predictor, David Einhorn. At the Ira Sohn investment conference in New York on May 4th, he claimed that shale oil producers rely on a trashing business model.
28 maggio 2015
by Diana Shendrikova - From Russia with energy is a weekly column of ISPI Energy Watch, aimed at bringing about the latest issues of Russia’s Energy Policy and at acquainting readers of the latest development in Russia’s economy and politics in response to the low oil prices and global geopolitical issues by analyzing the latest research on the topic and debate in the national media.
27 maggio 2015
by Simona Benedettini - The European Commission has recently launched a state aid sector inquiry on Member States’ capacity mechanisms. The UK is not included in the inquiry given that its capacity market, currently running, has been already approved by the EC in the light of state aid rules.
Nonetheless, a more detailed insight into the UK capacity mechanism leads to some considerations about whether its ability to promote generation adequacy in a competitive and cost-effective manner may be involuntarily jeopardized by some of its features.
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